Sporting Covilha 1-1 Uniao Santarem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-5.6pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.7pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.0pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 36%
-18% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.89/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.01
-33% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Uniao Santarem
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
29.03.2025 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
09.03.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-1 HT 0-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
25.01.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-1 HT 1-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
26.10.2024 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-1
AWAY Uniao Santarem
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Uniao Santarem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha and Uniao Santarem shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 32% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 58% of the ball to Uniao Santarem's 42%, shots finished 11-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Sporting Covilha and 0.80 for Uniao Santarem.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Uniao Santarem?

Sporting Covilha 1-1 Uniao Santarem in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Uniao Santarem?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 33%, draw 32%, Uniao Santarem 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uniao Santarem) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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