PAOK 3-1 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.47
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.29
No
61%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.06
6+ Goals
7%
19.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 36% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.81
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
19.05
X/1
22%
3.69
X/2
6%
14.3
X/X
12%
5.09
2/1
14%
28.5
2/2
5%
13.7
2/X
8%
22.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
64%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
14%
Away Win
13%
+1.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.5pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.82/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.76
-5% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
415 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
21.2 Crosses 8.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 0.77
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
380 Passes 250
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2025 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
19.01.2025 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-0 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
29.09.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
19.05.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
10.03.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
07.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
3-1
AWAY Aris Saloniki
3.31 xG 0.55
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
427 Passes 204
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
42 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK saw off Aris Saloniki 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PAOK had 64% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 36%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 3.31 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aris Saloniki led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for PAOK and 1.00 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Aris Saloniki?

PAOK 3-1 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split PAOK 61%, draw 24%, Aris Saloniki 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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