Birmingham Legion 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 45%
-19% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.07/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.32
-35% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
15.2 Crosses 19.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.37 xG 1.67
47% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
346 Passes 380
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2025 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-4 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
04.05.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
12.09.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
12.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
09.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 HT 3-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion ABDK
22.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
0-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.36 xG 2.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
366 Passes 363
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Box Touches 32
8 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies squeezed past Birmingham Legion 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Tampa Bay Rowdies found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 51% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 49%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.36 to 2.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tampa Bay Rowdies's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Birmingham Legion and 2.00 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Birmingham Legion 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 39%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Birmingham Legion), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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