Caldas 2-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.0pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.5pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 29%
-15% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +15%
0.98/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.99
-24% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.07.2025 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha HAZ
04.05.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
15.02.2025 Caldas Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
30.11.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
18.08.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
27.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
2-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas squeezed past Sporting Covilha 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Caldas had 55% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 45%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Caldas and 1.17 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Caldas 2-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Caldas 45%, draw 29%, Sporting Covilha 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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