Sporting Covilha 2-1 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 43%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -15%
1.17/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.55
-4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Caldas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2025 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
25.07.2025 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha HAZ
04.05.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
15.02.2025 Caldas Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
30.11.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
18.08.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
2-1
AWAY Caldas
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Caldas 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 48% of the ball to Caldas's 52%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Covilha and 0.83 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Sporting Covilha 2-1 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 29%, draw 28%, Caldas 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caldas), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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