Leones Negros Udeg 4-1 CDS Tampico Madero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.75
Over
34%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.76
No
63%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
40%
2-3
40%
4-5
14%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
33%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.5pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
53%
+12.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
47%
-12.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
53%
-15.8pp
63%
BTTS No
47%
+15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY CDS Tampico Madero The Market 43%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.29/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.29
-6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY CDS Tampico Madero
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
29% Ball Possession 71%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
17.11.2025 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 4-1 HT 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
14.11.2025 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 0-0 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero MEK2
03.08.2025 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 1-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
25.05.2025 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 0-0 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero MEK2
18.05.2025 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 2-1 HT 2-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
06.04.2025 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-2 HT 0-0 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
4-1
AWAY CDS Tampico Madero
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 8
13 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs CDS Tampico Madero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg swept aside CDS Tampico Madero 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and on the day Leones Negros Udeg made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leones Negros Udeg had 45% of the ball to CDS Tampico Madero's 55%, shots finished 17-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CDS Tampico Madero led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 1.50 for CDS Tampico Madero.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs CDS Tampico Madero?

Leones Negros Udeg 4-1 CDS Tampico Madero in the Mexico - Primera A on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs CDS Tampico Madero?

Before kick-off our model rated an CDS Tampico Madero win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 36%, draw 23%, CDS Tampico Madero 41%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CDS Tampico Madero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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