Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Atlante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.8
Over
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlante The Market 45%
+13% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +7%
1.06/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.85
-14% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +53%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atlante
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2025 Atlante Atlante 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
13.11.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
03.08.2025 Atlante Atlante 1-1 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
09.02.2025 Atlante Atlante 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
25.08.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlante Atlante MEK2
14.03.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 1-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1-1
AWAY Atlante
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos and Atlante couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atlante at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Tepatitlán de Morelos had 42% of the ball to Atlante's 58%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlante led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.00 for Atlante.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlante?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Atlante in the Mexico - Primera A on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlante?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atlante win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 29%, draw 28%, Atlante 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atlante), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlante) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK2 More Mexico - Primera A
11 Jan 2026
04:00 Cancun FC vs Dorados De Sinaloa Analysis →
04:00 Monarcas Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT Analysis →
21:00 Leones Negros Udeg vs CDS Tampico Madero Analysis →