Ayr United 1-0 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.23
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.81
6+ Goals
7%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
31%
3.23
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
8%
4.67
X/2
13%
6.42
X/X
12%
3.74
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
13%
5.24
2/X
5%
14.6
Value flag · 1/1 at 3.23 — our 31% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.0pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.0pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.15/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.01
-21% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.1 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Arbroath
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 5
5 Corners 3
03.03.2026 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
15.11.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
01.08.2025 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
19.07.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 4-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKLK
23.01.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 2-0 HT 0-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
13.01.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United squeezed past Arbroath 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ayr United had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ayr United and 0.50 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Arbroath?

Ayr United 1-0 Arbroath in the Scotland - Championship on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 44%, draw 24%, Arbroath 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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