Varzim 4-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
12%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.7pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.08/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.13
-16% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
49% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
30.11.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
16.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
07.04.2024 Varzim Varzim 4-3 HT 3-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
11.02.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
08.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
4-0
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim swept aside Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Varzim found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Varzim had 46% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 54%, shots finished 8-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Varzim and 1.17 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Varzim 4-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Varzim 39%, draw 27%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 35%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varzim), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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