Caernarfon Town 1-2 Newtown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
7.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Newtown EU Bookmakers 27%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.61/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.38
-7% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
451 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Newtown
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2024 Newtown Newtown 0-4 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
04.08.2024 Newtown Newtown 2-2 HT 0-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
13.04.2024 Newtown Newtown 5-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
01.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
07.10.2023 Newtown Newtown 4-0 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.08.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Newtown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newtown squeezed past Caernarfon Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.00 for Newtown.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Newtown?

Caernarfon Town 1-2 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Newtown?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 50%, draw 24%, Newtown 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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