Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.79
6+ Goals
11%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 29% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.18
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
17%
5.05
X/2
9%
6.79
X/X
18%
4.29
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
12%
5.02
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.31/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.28
+10% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
18.5 Crosses 11.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
2W-1D-3L
AWAY PAOK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
436 Passes 256
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.01.2025 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-1 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
15.09.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
15.05.2024 PAOK PAOK 4-1 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
31.03.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-3 HT 1-2 PAOK PAOK YUN
21.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
14.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
3-1
AWAY PAOK
1.34 xG 1.28
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
239 Passes 374
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos beat PAOK 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Panathinaikos as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 41% of the ball to PAOK's 59%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.34 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.67 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 43%, draw 30%, PAOK 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Panathinaikos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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