Panathinaikos 2-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.81
No
62%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
17%
3.81
6+ Goals
7%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 34% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
13%
4.85
X/2
10%
6.59
X/X
15%
4.21
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
15%
4.91
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
51%
-13.7pp
62%
BTTS No
49%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.12/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.08
+13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
305 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
16.6 Crosses 12.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
1W-1D-4L
AWAY PAOK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.00 xG 1.89
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
444 Passes 234
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
15.05.2024 PAOK PAOK 4-1 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
31.03.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-3 HT 1-2 PAOK PAOK YUN
21.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
14.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUK
28.01.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
2-1
AWAY PAOK
2.29 xG 0.66
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
364 Passes 315
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos nicked a narrow win over PAOK 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Panathinaikos as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 53% of the ball to PAOK's 47%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 2.29 to 0.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Panathinaikos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.83 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Panathinaikos 2-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 41%, draw 28%, PAOK 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Panathinaikos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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