Orlando City 4-3 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 May 2026

📅14/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.75
6+ Goals
11%
7.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.28
1/2
6%
24.8
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
10%
5.66
X/2
9%
6.19
X/X
11%
5.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.1
2/2
21%
3.76
2/X
5%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.8pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.5pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.28/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.25
-21% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 81%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
18.9 Crosses 18.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.56 xG 2.02
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
310 Passes 345
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
23.02.2025 Orlando City Orlando City 2-4 HT 1-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
03.10.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 2-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
12.05.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-3 HT 1-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
22.06.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 2-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
26.03.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-2 HT 1-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
4-3
AWAY Philadelphia Union
2.79 xG 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 26
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
420 Passes 329
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 42
6 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
FAQ Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Orlando City edged past Philadelphia Union 4-3 in the USA - Major League on 14 May 2026. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 55% and both teams to score was close to even at 58%.

On the day, Orlando City had 54% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 46%, shots finished 12-26, expected goals 2.79 to 1.67.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City have the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Orlando City and 1.67 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union?

Orlando City 4-3 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 14/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 41%, draw 23%, Philadelphia Union 36%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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