Kyoto Sanga 0-4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.42 — our 25% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.6pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 51%
+7% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.23/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.97
+14% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
18.5 Crosses 23.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.73 xG 1.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
194 Passes 292
63% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
27.02.2026 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
12.09.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
29.03.2025 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
03.11.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
19.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-5 HT 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
23.09.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
0-4
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.15 xG 2.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
3 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 10
284 Passes 211
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
11 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ran out comfortable winners over Kyoto Sanga 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 55% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 45%, shots finished 3-17, expected goals 0.15 to 2.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.17 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Kyoto Sanga 0-4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 32%, draw 25%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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