De Graafschap 1-0 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Feb 2026

📅20/02/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.57
Draw
16%
4.19
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.46
2-3 Goals
40%
2.1
4-5 Goals
27%
2.35
6+ Goals
16%
4.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.15
X/1
23%
4.52
X/2
4%
10.5
X/X
6%
7.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
17.45
2/2
11%
6.93
2/X
4%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.45 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
59%
+3.4pp
16%
Draw
20%
-4.8pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.7pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
2.06/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.50
+0% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
428 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
24.3 Crosses 14.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Utrecht II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.65 xG 1.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
351 Passes 287
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.12.2025 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-3 HT 1-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
20.01.2025 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
23.08.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
03.05.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.11.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.01.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
1-0
AWAY Utrecht II
1.74 xG 0.44
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
354 Passes 181
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap nicked a narrow win over Utrecht II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 61% of the ball to Utrecht II's 39%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.74 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold De Graafschap's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 1.67 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Utrecht II?

De Graafschap 1-0 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 62%, draw 16%, Utrecht II 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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