Atlanta United 2-3 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Jul 2025

Atlanta United
2-3 HT 1-0
Charlotte
📅20/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

Atlanta United vs Charlotte Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
10%
7.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.75 — our 28% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.1
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
5%
12.65
X/1
16%
5.54
X/2
11%
6.68
X/X EV+ ✗
19%
5.78
2/1
6%
22.45
2/2
18%
4.13
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · X/X at 5.78 — our 19% vs market 13.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.0pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Charlotte — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.48/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.55
+7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
18.7 Crosses 14.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Atlanta United vs Charlotte Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Charlotte
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 1.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
418 Passes 349
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.03.2025 Charlotte Charlotte 2-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
01.09.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 0-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.06.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-3 HT 1-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
14.05.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-3 HT 0-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
11.03.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 0-3 HT 0-3 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
10.04.2022 Charlotte Charlotte 1-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Atlanta United 2-3 Charlotte — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
2-3
AWAY Charlotte
1.54 xG 1.42
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
467 Passes 393
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte squeezed past Atlanta United 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Charlotte made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 54% of the ball to Charlotte's 46%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.54 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlotte led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlanta United and 1.50 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Charlotte?

Atlanta United 2-3 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 37%, draw 29%, Charlotte 34%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlanta United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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