New York Red Bulls 1-5 Inter Miami — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.1
2-3 Goals
36%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.48
1/2
8%
24.2
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
18%
6.14
X/2
13%
6.29
X/X
10%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.75
2/2
12%
3.61
2/X
7%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+5.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.4pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +20%
1.55/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.59
-3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.9 Crosses 13.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Inter Miami
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.40 xG 1.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
313 Passes 457
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2025 Inter Miami Inter Miami 4-1 HT 3-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
05.05.2024 Inter Miami Inter Miami 6-2 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
23.03.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-0 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
27.08.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-2 HT 0-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
01.06.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-1 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
28.08.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 1-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
1-5
AWAY Inter Miami
0.76 xG 3.07
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
299 Passes 565
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter Miami cruised past New York Red Bulls 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was New York Red Bulls at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 37% of the ball to Inter Miami's 63%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.76 to 3.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New York Red Bulls and 2.17 for Inter Miami.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?

New York Red Bulls 1-5 Inter Miami in the USA - Major League on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 44%, draw 24%, Inter Miami 32%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York Red Bulls) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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