Sporting Covilha 1-0 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 22 Feb 2026

📅22/02/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.67
Over 2.5
52%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.4pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
0.97/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.31
-22% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Caldas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-1 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
09.08.2025 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
25.07.2025 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha HAZ
04.05.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
15.02.2025 Caldas Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
30.11.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-0
AWAY Caldas
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha nicked a narrow win over Caldas 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Sporting Covilha found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 47% of the ball to Caldas's 53%, shots finished 9-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sporting Covilha and 1.00 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Sporting Covilha 1-0 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 36%, draw 27%, Caldas 36%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
22 Feb 2026
18:00 Paredes vs Sanjoanense Analysis →
18:00 Sporting Braga II vs AD Marco 09 Analysis →
18:00 Dezembro vs Atletico CP Analysis →
18:00 Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Amora FC Analysis →