Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Alaves v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Deportivo Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics
Rayo Vallecano edged past Deportivo Alaves 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 48% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 52%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 1.63 to 1.34.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano.
What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Deportivo Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 44%, draw 29%, Rayo Vallecano 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.