Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.57
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 27% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.44
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
19%
4.52
X/2
11%
8.25
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
8%
23.2
2/2
9%
6.21
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 27%
+3% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.47/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.36
+12% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
16.0 Crosses 18.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rostov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
251 Passes 353
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 HT 0-1 Rostov Rostov RUSK
26.04.2025 Rostov Rostov 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
23.10.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
25.08.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 2-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
30.07.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
06.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3-3
AWAY Rostov
2.01 xG 2.09
36% Ball Possession 64%
15 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
198 Passes 430
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and Rostov couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Moscow at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 36% of the ball to Rostov's 64%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.01 to 2.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.17 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 50%, draw 24%, Rostov 26%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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