St. Louis City 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.33
Over 2.5
63%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.63
2-3 Goals
35%
1.89
4-5 Goals
29%
2.71
6+ Goals
14%
7.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.78
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
11%
5.1
X/2
13%
6.97
X/X
8%
5.8
2/1
9%
21.15
2/2
10%
4.46
2/X
9%
13.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
39%
-2.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
61%
+2.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.3pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.71/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.41
+12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
23.0 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Louis City
6W-0D-0L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.10 xG 1.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
292 Passes 360
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2025 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 HT 1-3 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
31.05.2025 St. Louis City St. Louis City 2-1 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
22.09.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 1-2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
04.07.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 2-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
25.06.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 0-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
19.03.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
2-3
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.59 xG 1.54
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
410 Passes 276
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
48 Box Touches 27
30 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Jose Earthquakes nicked a narrow win over St. Louis City 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was St. Louis City at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, St. Louis City had 58% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 42%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.59 to 1.54 — the balance of chances actually favoured St. Louis City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Louis City had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for St. Louis City and 0.67 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

St. Louis City 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 45%, draw 22%, San Jose Earthquakes 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Louis City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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