Fenerbahçe 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
30%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.32
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
27%
3.56
6+ Goals
9%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.09
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
20%
3.85
X/2 EV+ ✗
15%
10.3
X/X
8%
5.03
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
11%
8.26
2/X
11%
16.1
Value flag · X/2 at 10.3 — our 15% vs market 6.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
57%
-12.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
19%
+10.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 22%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +64% / +64%
2.18/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/0.83
-2% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +115% / +65%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 70%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.8 Crosses 25.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.21 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 12
378 Passes 384
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise AVKL
07.03.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-3 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
2-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.57 xG 2.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
359 Passes 207
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe edged past Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 60% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 40%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.57 to 2.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Union Saint-Gilloise.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.50 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Fenerbahçe 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the UEFA Europa League on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 44%, draw 26%, Union Saint-Gilloise 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVL More UEFA Europa League
26 Sep 2024
00:00 Roma vs Athletic Bilbao Analysis →
19:45 Malmö FF vs Rangers Analysis →
22:00 FCSB vs Rigas Skola Analysis →
22:00 Ajax vs Beşiktaş Analysis →
22:00 Sporting Braga vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Analysis →
22:00 Lyon vs Olympiakos Analysis →