Kilmarnock 3-2 Dundee FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.53
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
17%
4.64
X/2
10%
8.21
X/X
16%
5.06
2/1
8%
23.3
2/2
13%
6.12
2/X
9%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-8.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.47/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.47
+18% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 69%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
25.1 Crosses 19.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Dundee FC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.60 xG 1.35
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
238 Passes 267
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 0-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
03.11.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 3-2 HT 1-2 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
05.10.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-3 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
18.05.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.03.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
20.01.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 2-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
3-2
AWAY Dundee FC
3.49 xG 0.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
140 Passes 255
55% Pass Accuracy 65%
30 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Dundee FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock squeezed past Dundee FC 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kilmarnock as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 41% of the ball to Dundee FC's 59%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 3.49 to 0.99 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kilmarnock's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.50 for Dundee FC.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Dundee FC?

Kilmarnock 3-2 Dundee FC in the Scotland - Premiership on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Dundee FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kilmarnock win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 42%, draw 30%, Dundee FC 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kilmarnock), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kilmarnock) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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