Albirex Niigata 1-1 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
52%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.6
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.17
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.95
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
8%
8.26
X/2
15%
4.45
X/X
11%
5.18
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.38
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.95 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
25%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
52%
Away Win
51%
+0.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.5pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 56%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.23/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.06
-16% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
330 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
15.5 Crosses 16.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.65 xG 1.73
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
568 Passes 300
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-1 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
13.10.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 0-2 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
09.10.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 4-1 HT 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JLK
27.09.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 5-1 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
22.06.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
29.09.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-3 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-1
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.38 xG 1.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
327 Passes 325
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata and Kawasaki Frontale couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kawasaki Frontale at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 50% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 50%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.38 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Albirex Niigata and 2.17 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Albirex Niigata 1-1 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 22%, draw 26%, Kawasaki Frontale 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✓ BTTS Yes
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