Machida Zelvia 3-0 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.71
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
15%
4.78
X/2
11%
7.23
X/X
12%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.8
2/2
15%
5.13
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.8 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-2.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.37/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.44
+0% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.8 Crosses 16.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.97 xG 0.79
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
207 Passes 405
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
07.08.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
09.06.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 2-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
05.06.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-3 HT 1-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JLK
15.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
3-0
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.92 xG 0.74
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
242 Passes 546
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia swept aside Cerezo Osaka 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 34% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 66%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.00 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka?

Machida Zelvia 3-0 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 44%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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