Caldas 1-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.4pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 31%
-10% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +19%
1.20/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.05
-7% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.02.2026 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 1-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
09.11.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-1 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
09.08.2025 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
25.07.2025 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha HAZ
04.05.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
15.02.2025 Caldas Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 3
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas and Sporting Covilha shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Caldas had 47% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 53%, shots finished 10-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Caldas and 1.17 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Caldas 1-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Caldas 46%, draw 28%, Sporting Covilha 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Caldas), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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