Roma vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Roma v Milan — Team-Based Signals
Roma vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Roma 3-1 Milan — Actual Match Statistics
Roma put daylight between themselves and Milan 3-1. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 53% for over 2.5, 53% on both teams scoring. The market went further still — the BTTS-yes price closed at 1.59, about 63%.
The match data tells the story: possession split 54% to 46% in Roma's favour, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.07 to 1.43.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Roma against 1.67 for Milan.
Roma vs Milan Result & Final Score
Roma 3-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Roma vs Milan Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roma 43%, draw 25%, Milan 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.