Roma 3-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 May 2025

Roma
3-1 HT 1-1
Milan
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.03
Over Pick
53%
1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.59
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.81
2-3
43%
1.83
4-5
23%
3.12
6+
10%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.97
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
14%
5.17
X/2
13%
7.06
X/X
9%
5.1
2/1
10%
23.75
2/2
13%
4.8
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 33%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Bad
1.40 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.33
1.09 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.67
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Bad
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 84%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
17.0 Crosses 13.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Milan
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.31 xG 1.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
408 Passes 424
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 35
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.02.2025 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 2-0 Roma Roma İTK
29.12.2024 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
31.05.2024 Roma Roma 5-2 HT 2-1 Milan Milan HAZ
18.04.2024 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan AVL
11.04.2024 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma AVL
14.01.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
3-1
AWAY Milan
1.07 xG 1.43
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
507 Passes 438
92% Pass Accuracy 92%
32 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Roma vs Milan
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Roma put daylight between themselves and Milan 3-1. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 53% for over 2.5, 53% on both teams scoring. The market went further still — the BTTS-yes price closed at 1.59, about 63%.

The match data tells the story: possession split 54% to 46% in Roma's favour, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.07 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Roma against 1.67 for Milan.

Roma vs Milan Result & Final Score

Roma 3-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Roma vs Milan Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roma 43%, draw 25%, Milan 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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